There’s been a lot in the news recently about whether skill or luck is the defining factor in poker. From a legal standpoint, especially in the United States, the definition has wide reaching implications, especially for the online poker rooms. Since the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (2025) most online poker rooms have not allowed players from the US. Since then the Poker Player’s Alliance has been fighting to have the law changed, and the chances of that happening largely rest on whether it can be proved that poker is predominantly a game of skill.
“If it weren’t for luck, I’d win every time” - Phil Hellmuth
While most good poker players know that poker is a game of skill, it can’t be denied that no poker player can win every match, or be dealt a good hand every time, and all will succumb to a losing streak at some point or another. But where is the line drawn? How much do poker players really depend on luck, and how much is skill?
Many people go through a rough patch whilst playing poker and then regrettably reach the conclusion that poker is simply impossible to win and therefore, they should just cut their losses. Just remember: whilst skill is a big part of poker, luck also plays its part too.
Just make sure you do not lose perspective about the role that skill plays in winning poker, no man can win poker all the time through luck alone. If we can draw a comparison, poker is like an investment, the stock will go up and it will go down, but a skillful player will see his bankroll increase in the long term.
Some people strike it lucky with a minimal of effort, in that they manage to invest in a company that has a healthy profit margin and good prospects which means that the stock and the value of it rises quickly and continually. Poker is not quite like that, because it will take months of practise in order for you to win on a routine basis.
Some poker books make the rather sobering claim that a player needs to accumulate at least 1400 hours of gameplay to level out and be winning at whatever level. To be totally honest, this is a little extreme and most good players are likely to have bad days and weeks, but should be overall winning each month.
If you’re playin poker for 3-4 hours each day on average, then after a month of maintaining that same standard you’ll have played over a hundred hours, and you will probably notice some fairly solid results.
Sometimes players will have ridiculous winning streaks, but these are flukes and statistical deviations, and therefore little to worry about. These types of players will either get too cocky and make a rash move that leaves them over stretched and under powered, or they will leave the table. The bottom line is that in the long run they will always get beat.
There are two things we need to appreciate whenever we are speaking about luck in the context of poker: luck reduces a players game, and having a healthy bankroll makes you less reliant on luck. You’ll suffer more bad beats if you’re playing well, because by definition a good player will be getting their money in the pot with the best of it, and therefore more likely to be outdrawn. A bad player won’t be outdrawn, since they won’t hae their chips in with the best of it in the first place!
Luck Makes Poker Players Play Worse!
Luck can be corrosive to a player's strategy as it makes them complacent and lazy. This is true from the novice to the most seasoned veteran. If you find yourself on a winning streak, quit while you are ahead and take a moment to reflect on just how you are conducting yourself. If you’re playing well it’s not a problem, but if you realise you’re gambling then your luck will run out!
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